Prediction of Francesco Maestrelli vs Vit Kopriva at Lyon Challenger 11-12-25

• Francesco Maestrelli has a slight edge in second serve points, winning 45.71%, compared to Vit Kopriva's 44.69%.
• In return games, Vit Kopriva outperforms by securing 49.18% of opponent's second serve points, while Maestrelli wins 46.19% in similar scenarios.
• Who dominates first serve returns? Vit Kopriva again, with 26.73% compared to Maestrelli's 25.62%.
• Kopriva and Maestrelli have comparable breakpoint-saving abilities, with Maestrelli at 55.98% and Kopriva close behind at 53.64%.
• Over the past year, Francesco Maestrelli has a slightly better match-winning percentage of 60.81% as opposed to Vit Kopriva's 57.75%.
• On their best surface, clay, both players have a win percentage of 56%, but on alternate surfaces, Maestrelli struggles more than Kopriva.
• When it comes to player level in recent competitions, Kopriva edges out with a 65.79% win rate in Challenger/ITF events, slightly above Maestrelli's 62.32%.
• Kopriva has faced stronger competition, with his opponents averaging a ranking of 182.31, while Maestrelli’s opponents averaged 317.62.
• If it goes to a deciding set, Maestrelli shows strong resilience, boasting a 75% win rate, which surpasses Kopriva’s 58%.

Editorial Prediction (November 11, 2025, UTC):

In anticipation of this tennis match, Francesco Maestrelli's stronger performance in second serve points and superior record in deciding sets may offer a subtle edge. Additionally, his overall match-winning percentage over the past year slightly surpasses Vit Kopriva's.

Conversely, Vit Kopriva emerges as the better player in return games, excelling in both first and second serve returns. This could prove pivotal if he capitalizes on Maestrelli's service games.

Given the comparative quality of opponents they have faced, Kopriva has been tested against more formidable competition, which might aid his performance under pressure and in key moments.

Balancing these factors, while Maestrelli exhibits greater tenacity in tight situations, Kopriva's consistency against top-level opposition and his returning prowess suggest he may edge out his opponent. Therefore, Vit Kopriva is slightly favored to clinch the win in this encounter.